Longitudinal trajectories of alcohol consumption with all-cause mortality, hypertension, and blood pressure change

Numerous studies have demonstrated a J-shaped association (or protective effect) of moderate alcohol consumption with all-cause mortality and hypertension. A paper published in the journal, Nutrients, argues that the majority of these studies focus on a single measurement of alcohol intake and are conducted in a Western population.
In the large, population-based China Health and Nutrition Survey cohort from between 1993 and 2015, group-based trajectory modeling was conducted to identify distinct alcohol-consumption trajectory classes. Researchers investigated their association with all-cause mortality and hypertension using Cox regression and binary logistics regression models. A restricted cubic spline was performed to determine the nonlinear relationships of mean alcohol intake with mortality and hypertension and the change in blood pressure among alcohol-consumption trajectory classes was assessed.
Among the 5298 participants, 48.4% were women and the mean age was 62.6 years. After 22 years of follow-up, 568 (10.7%) of the participants died and 1284 (24.2%) developed hypertension.
Long-term light and moderate drinkers had a lower risk of death than the non-drinkers, and a restricted cubic spline showed a J-shaped relationship between mean alcohol intake and mortality. Although blood pressure increased slower in light and moderate drinkers, a reduced risk of hypertension was only observed in the former. The long-term heavy drinkers had the highest blood pressure and death rate. The study found curvilinear curves in alcohol–mortality and alcohol–hypertension associations using average alcohol consumption during a 22-year period, extending previous findings that light alcohol intake might be protective in the long run, while heavy drinking reverses the beneficial effect. The causality of such a connection needs to be further investigated.
Source: Qiu W, Cai A, Li L, Feng Y. Longitudinal Trajectories of Alcohol Consumption with All-Cause Mortality, Hypertension, and Blood Pressure Change: Results from CHNS Cohort, 1993–2015. Nutrients. 2022; 14(23):5073.