European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2024 with focus on colorectal cancer

A study published in the cancer journal Annals of Oncology predicts death rates from cancer in the EU and UK for 2024. It is the first time that an increase in bowel cancer death rates among young adults has been predicted for some EU countries, and it confirms a trend in the UK that the researchers first noted in 2021.
Researchers led by Carlo La Vecchia (MD), Professor of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology at the University of Milan (Italy) analysed cancer death rates in the EU 27 Member States as a whole and separately in the UK. They looked at the five most populous EU countries (France, Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain) and, individually, for stomach, intestines, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus (including cervix), ovary, prostate, bladder and leukaemias for men and women. Data on deaths were collected from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases from 1970 to 2018 for most of the EU-27 and the UK.
The researchers predict that the greatest increase in bowel cancer death rates among younger people will be seen in the UK where they will rise by 26% in men and nearly 39% in women in 2024 as compared to 2018. Increases will also be seen in Italy (up 1.5% in men and 2.6% in women), among Spanish and Polish men (up 5.5% and 5.9% respectively) and German women (up 7.2%).
“Key factors that contribute to the rise in bowel cancer rates among young people include overweight, obesity and related health conditions, such as high blood sugar levels and diabetes,” said Prof. La Vecchia. “Additional reasons are increases in heavier alcohol drinking over time in central and northern Europe and the UK, and reductions in physical activity. Alcohol consumption has been linked to early onset bowel cancer, and countries where there has been a reduction in alcohol consumption, such as France and Italy, have not experienced such marked rises in death rates from this cancer. Early onset bowel cancer tends to be more aggressive, with lower survival rates, compared to bowel cancer that is diagnosed in older people.
“National governments should consider strengthening policies to encourage increased physical activity, a reduction in the number of people who are overweight or obese, and a reduction in alcohol consumption…In terms of prevention, governments should consider the extension of screening for bowel cancer to younger ages, starting at ages 45 years. .”
Source: Santucci C, Mignozzi S, Malvezzi M, Boffetta P, Collatuzzo G, Levi F, La Vecchia C, Negri E. European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2024 with focus on colorectal cancer. Ann Oncol. 2024 Jan 17:S0923-7534(23)05110-4. doi.org/10.1016/j.annonc.2023.12.003